Behaviors and Beliefs Behind Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

In psychology and sociology, a self-fulfilling prophecy is generally regarded as any belief or expectation in which holding the belief contributes to the belief becoming true. Researchers have found details that have demonstrated how our beliefs can significantly impact the outcomes of many situations, including academic achievement, career success, and interpersonal fulfillment—inspiring many to work through any self-identified prophecies of this sort in their personal development journeys.

Below, we’re discussing what self-fulfilling prophecies can look like, and how to successfully identify and address any you may experience in your own life.

The classical definition and why the initial prediction can be false

The term "self-fulfilling prophecy" is thought to have been coined in 1948 by Robert Merton, an American sociologist who developed many theories still in use today. When Merton introduced the concept of a self-fulfilling prophecy to the public, he did so using a story known as "The Last National Bank”.

In this widely shared story, Merton describes a bank on solid footing. However, rumors begin to spread that the bank is insolvent. These rumors lead to bank customers becoming nervous about their investments, and demanding that they completely withdraw their accounts. Because banks often don’t have the kind of money on hand that will allow this, the bank collapsed when the customers all tried to withdraw their funds. 

In this situation invoking the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy, the originally false conception becomes true only after the customers’ beliefs directly lead to the downfall of the bank.

The causal loop steps

The causality loop created by a self-fulfilling prophecy includes the thought, behavior, outcome, and reinforcement of the initial thought. The causal loop works this way:

• Initial thought. The individual holds to a belief about a future outcome (for example: “I’m going to fail the test next week”)
• Behavioral change. The person acts in accordance with expected behavior, even unconsciously (worrying, avoiding study, studying half-heartedly with the belief they are going to “fail anyway”)
• Outcome realization. Certain behaviors have led to the outcome the individual had expected (they fail the test)
• Reinforcement. This outcome “proves” to the person that their belief was correct, and they continue to act in the same way (“I knew I was going to fail! It’s not even worth trying!”)

How self-fulfilling prophecies form in daily life

Self-fulfilling prophecy can represent two different types of prophecy: self-imposed and other-imposed. A self-imposed self-fulfilling prophecy can occur because of certain beliefs an individual holds, leading to negative consequences. In contrast, other-imposed prophecies can occur when an individual is being impacted by the beliefs of those around them.

Your own expectations and negative feelings

Merton's bank story can be taken to illustrate a self-imposed self-fulfilling prophecy. Each bank customer who attempted to withdraw their money was said to have believed the bank would soon collapse. Although it took most customers holding that belief to make it true, each customer was recorded to have held the personal expectation that the bank would collapse. These negative thoughts and their own expectations were a direct cause of this collapse. 

Other people’s expectations and actual treatment

In other research, a study conducted by researchers named Rosenthal and Jacobsen offered an example of an other-imposed self-fulfilling prophecy. In this study, students were divided into two groups labeled “high achieving” and “low achieving” based on scores from a fake aptitude test. The students placed in the “high achieving” group were found to show better classroom performance and higher test scores, although the group placements were completely arbitrary. The students in their experiment did not generally have beliefs or expectations about their performance that were modified by the researchers. It was the different expectations held by the teachers that were thought to have influenced the students' performance.

Research examples that explain why it works

There are several examples used in research that effectively illustrate how the idea of self-fulfilling prophecies work. Two well-known examples include Clever Hans and the Pygmalion Effect. 

Clever Hans and expectation cues

The story of Clever Hans is often used by experts in behavioral psychology to illustrate the use of subtle or unconscious cues that influence outcomes. Clever Hans was a performing horse that was displayed in Germany in the late 1800s. Audiences were enthralled by the horse’s seemingly human-level intelligence, as he identified colors, spelled words, and even worked out math problems. However, investigators found that the horse’s handler was subconsciously indicating the correct answer by his response, and the horse could pick up this cue. 

The Pygmalion effect and student treatment

The Pygmalion Effect is a phenomenon in behavioral psychology in which others’ expectations of our performance can impact our behavior and effort, and improve our performance in a specific area. In short, we do better when more is expected of us. For example, you have a big school project coming up, and your teacher’s attitude is “I know that it’s going to be excellent, and I can’t wait to see what you do!” You may then spend more time working on the project, and be more invested in the quality of your work. 

However, a common problem can occur when the opposite holds true. When educators or other authority figures expect less, or negative behaviors, they can perpetuate behavioral cycles that negatively impact individuals–a situation evoking systemic traps on marginalized groups. 

Self-fulfilling prophecies in society and stereotypes

Self-fulfilling prophecies that are perpetuated by the expectations of others can often have a dark side based in stereotypes and expectations that are shaped by biases and inequality. 

How stereotypes shape intellectual identity

Marginalized groups can find themselves continually fighting against widely-held stereotypic fears and expectations. This in itself may cause individuals to not ask for help from teachers, or refuse to study with peers, which then can impact their performance…fulfilling the original expectations set upon them by others. When people in authority have certain expectations for student achievement, it can create positive or negative results. When used in a negative way, it can create generational cycles of low expectations. In some cases, stereotypes can shape intellectual identity and create a false definition of the self. For example, women who are told that women aren’t good at math may not pursue higher math.

Stereotype threat and stigmatized social groups

In many cases, it may not only be the behaviors of students themselves, but subtle or not-so-subtle behaviors of the teachers that perpetuate these problems. Teachers that have lower expectations for individuals of lower socioeconomic status or with disabilities may not offer the same kind of attention or positive reinforcement that they would for others. 

Education examples including African American students and social class

A longitudinal study conducted from 2002 to 2012 found that high schoolers with teachers that had higher expectations for their future success were three times more likely to graduate from college, along with the data that high percentages of secondary school teachers had lower expectations of African American students as well as those from lower social classes. Fifty-three percent of the teachers polled predicted that high poverty students were less likely than more affluent students to earn a degree, and forty-seven percent that African American students were less likely to graduate college. 

These expectations can lead to conscious or unconscious cues and behaviors that perpetuate a cycle of poor educational outcomes for marginalized groups based on the principles of the Pygmalion Effect. When teachers expect less, they may offer less. 

Self-fulfilling prophecy in health and wellbeing

Self-fulfilling prophecies can create impacts on individual health and wellbeing. As with the educational examples, the expectations we put on ourselves and the expectations of others may affect our daily lives. For example, if an individual has daily expectations of poor health, failure, or relationship difficulties, they may unconsciously behave in ways that reinforce these things. On the other hand, those who have high expectations about what the day brings may find themselves behaving in ways that fulfills those expectations. 

Placebo effect and overall health

The placebo effect can be an illustration of a positive self-fulfilling prophecy. In some cases, belief can change outcomes and symptoms. Placebo isn’t magic, but positive expectations can shape daily routines, and cause unconscious shifts in behavior and thought that can facilitate positive change. Let’s look at the classic example of the sugar pill. Let’s say you’re feeling poorly–low energy, achy, and out of sorts. Someone you trust gives you a sugar pill and says “this vitamin is amazing, it will give you so much energy and make you feel great!” You start taking the pill, firmly believing that it will give you energy, so you may start to behave in a way that reinforces this belief. In the same way, a firm belief in your own health may prompt protective certain habits such as:

• Getting regular exercise
• Spending time outdoors
• Staying socially active
• Taking an interest in preferred activities and hobbies
• Getting regular sleep

Larger scale examples beyond personal life

Whether positive or negative, the concept of self-fulfilling prophecy can be powerful not only on a personal level, but on a global scale. 

International relations and escalation cycles

International relations classically respond to self-fulfilling prophecies through escalation and de-escalation cycles. When two countries are considered enemies, any move they make may be construed as “hostile” and then either mirrored or escalated by the country. Expectations that the enemy country is always strengthening its position or taking negative action can cause the other country to do so itself, perpetuating a cycle of escalation that reinforces the original expectation. 

“Men define positions” and why consequences follow

Social sciences, especially analytical sociology view self-fulfilling prophecies through a societal lens, in how consequences follow when groups create false expectations on certain groups, while psychology examines the impacts of this phenomenon on the individual. Stereotype threat and the consequences of negative stereotypes of stigmatized social groups can perpetuate and maintain systemic inequality. On an individual level, these types of self-perpetuating prophecy may lead to generational mental health challenges. 

How to break a negative self-fulfilling prophecy

Self-imposed prophecies can be easier to identify and address than other-imposed ones; as it can be challenging to understand and modify the beliefs of others or how they may be impacting you. However, with support, many can address the effects that either of the prophecy types can have on one’s experience.

Identify the belief and test it with evidence

The first step to shifting a potential self-fulfilling prophecy is to identify the belief behind it. Practice self-awareness by identifying the thought or belief you are using to define you, such as “I always fail” or “I can’t make friends”.  Examine this belief with a scientific lens, taking care to test the absolute language involved. Is it really true? If not, what can you do to shift your language and make practical changes? 

Positive psychology approach to creating positive cycles

Next, learn to take a positive psychology approach to building a more positive cycle of thought and behavior. Not sure where to start? You can try these steps to introduce positive self-fulfilling prophecies:

1. Establish positive beliefs – even if they don't feel natural right away. This might mean telling yourself things like, "My friends enjoy my company" or "I know I can finish that work project on time”.

2. Try to catch negative beliefs when they appear. You can do this by training yourself to think about yourself positively and optimistically.

3. Avoid absolutes like "never" or "always." Instead, you can allow yourself flexibility and room to grow.

4. Work onbuilding self-esteem to make reinforcing positive beliefs easier. A therapist can help you do this over time. 

5. Take note of when you confirm or exceed your positive beliefs. Many people find keeping a journal helpful as they become more positive.

Establishing positive beliefs about yourself and building self-esteem may also be helpful when managing other-imposed self-fulfilling prophecies. Self-development and cultivating confidence and self-esteem can help defend you from the influence of others if they hold false or harmful beliefs about you—and it can also help you recover from undesired outcomes.

How can online therapy help address a self-fulfilling prophecy?

An online therapist can be a useful resource to leverage as you work to get control of self-imposed self-fulfilling prophecies (or as you work to manage the effects of other-imposed ones). Online therapy allows you to connect with a therapist online, which can remove many of the barriers to therapy that people may experience—like traveling to an office or being restricted to nearby therapists only.

The benefits of online therapy

Online therapy allows you to connect with a therapist online, which can remove many of the barriers to therapy that people may experience—like traveling to an office or being restricted to nearby therapists only. With an online therapy platform like BetterHelp, you can connect with a therapist through video chat, voice call, or in-app messaging. 

Is online therapy effective? 

Online therapists can help clients learn how to use evidence-based techniques known to help people improve self-esteem, confidence, and one’s overall thought processes. A therapist can also help you dissect and understand the impacts of self-fulfilling prophecies in your life. Evidence suggests that online therapy can be just as effective as in-person therapy for psychiatric disorders and sleep-related disorders.