What Is Optimism Bias?
“Optimism bias” refers to a belief system regarding future life events in which a person assumes that positive events are more likely to happen to them and adverse events are less likely to happen to them. Humans are often predisposed to optimism bias across societies and cultures, with some population variations. However, not everyone has an optimism bias, and an optimism bias is not necessarily healthy.
When expectations venture into the realm of the improbable, you may be setting yourself up for disappointment (i.e., buying lottery tickets daily but never winning) or danger (i.e., driving under the influence). To avoid these consequences, it can be beneficial to understand the causes of optimism bias, how it can serve people in their lives, and recommendations for seeking treatment when your expectations consistently do not match your reality.
The origin of optimism bias
The concept of optimism bias was first named by psychologist Neil Weinstein, who used the phrase “unrealistic optimism” to describe optimism bias in his seminal 1980 article “Unrealistic optimism about future life events,” published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Weinstein worked with many social and clinical psychology college students to record their beliefs about their futures, specifically their attitudes toward negative and positive events. He found that most students believed they were less likely to experience a future negative event such as divorce or the development of alcohol use disorder than their peers.
Most students also believed they were more likely than their peers to experience positive outcomes, such as owning their own home or living past age 80. It is mathematically impossible for most group members to be above or below the average of a metric for that group, so the students’ beliefs about positive and negative outcomes represented a form of bias.
Causes of optimistic bias
Since optimism bias is widespread and appears to be partially hardwired into the human brain, there may be an evolutionary advantage to believing that good things will happen to you. However, this mindset has more potential causes, including but not limited to the following.
Egocentric tendencies
Other biases may also come into play that increase the probability of the optimism bias. Research shows that humans tend to be egocentric, focusing more on themselves and less on how each person realistically compares to others. Some people may not believe good things will randomly happen to them, but they may believe they have better skills and more knowledge than the average person or that their skills and knowledge will lead to a more positive outcome.
Control bias
What can be described as a perceived control bias can also influence the development of an optimism bias. When people believe they have direct power and influence over a situation, they may subsequently think the situation will work out in their favor.
Infrequency bias
An additional bias that can interact with optimism bias is infrequency bias. If someone believes an adverse event, such as experiencing negative events like a tornado or being diagnosed with lung cancer, is rare, they may believe the event will not happen to them, even if risk factors exist, such as a family history of lung cancer.
In this case, the actual risk estimates of the event do not matter in the development of optimism bias, as it is solely the person’s individual risk perception that plays a role, not the actual likelihood of the event occurring.
Comparison bias
If they are compared to a particular individual, the probability of an optimism bias decreases, and the probability decreases even further if they are compared to someone close to them.
For a real-life example of the collected comparison bias, imagine a doctor telling a patient that they have a serious form of lung cancer. Below are examples of potential risk factors for optimism bias:
- If the doctor tells the patient that only 40% of people diagnosed with the disease at this point in its progression survive, the patient is likely to assume that they will be part of that 40%, even though it is statistically more probable that they will be part of the 60% of patients who die. The patient compares themselves to a vague “average person,” meaning they are likelier to assume an optimistic outcome.
- If the doctor tells the patient about a specific other patient they worked with who died from the same disease, the patient is less likely to have an optimism bias.
- If the doctor tells the patient that they have the same form of lung cancer that their mother died of, the patient will likely not have an optimism bias and will take a purely realistic view of the situation.
Benefits of optimism bias
Optimism bias may not necessarily be negative in every scenario. In some cases, it can have benefits, including but not limited to the following.
Resilience
An optimism bias may help a person become more resilient. If negative events happen to someone with an optimism bias, their belief system may lead them to conclude that the bad experiences were a fluke and are unlikely to happen again.
Such a person may continue to take risks and explore new opportunities not only because they believe that positive events will happen to them but because they know that even if bad things happen, they can rebound from setbacks since they have done it before. In this way, a person with an optimism bias may hone their sense of their own recovery abilities, and consequently, their resilience levels can increase.
A look toward the future
If you believe you will have a happy future, you may be more likely to take steps to safeguard that future. People with an optimism bias may be more likely to practice behaviors that improve physical and mental health, such as exercising regularly, eating a nutritious and well-balanced diet, taking vitamins, etc.
Physical health benefits
Optimism bias can contribute to some physical health benefits. Believing you are more likely to succeed and less likely to fail may result in lower overall stress, translating to less cortisol production. Increased cortisol levels have been linked to various adverse physical health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease and an increased risk of heart attacks. Additionally, believing in yourself positively impacts self-esteem, leading to various mental health benefits.
An optimism bias may also influence recovery from adverse health events. Suppose a person with an optimism bias is diagnosed with cancer and believes they can beat the disease. In that case, they may attend their doctor’s appointments consistently, adhere to their medication schedule, and make lifestyle changes to increase the likelihood of surviving the illness. In some cases, a positive belief may become a positive outcome.
Support options
While an optimism bias can sometimes be unrealistic, it may also yield health benefits. Talking to a licensed professional counselor may be beneficial if you want to reflect on your biases toward future events. A therapist can help you assess your current levels of optimism and work toward cultivating a more positive view of the world and your future.
If you are predisposed toward pessimism bias, it may seem challenging to find a therapist and attend in-person appointments, particularly if you are skeptical about the treatment outcome. In these instances, online therapy may be a beneficial alternative. With an online therapy platform like BetterHelp, you can search a database of hundreds of counselors to find the best match for a therapist you can talk to from the comfort and convenience of your home.
Scientific research has shown that there may be no difference in efficacy between online therapy and traditional in-person therapy. One method of therapy that has demonstrated success in changing people’s perspectives on the world is cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), which studies have indicated may be as effective when delivered online as when accessed in person. Online therapy could be a helpful resource if you hope to increase or decrease your optimism bias.
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